Mega-Post: Your Playoff Primer: Sens vs. Pens
23 Comments Published by Sherry on Tuesday, April 10, 2007 at 4:41 PM.
vs. 
For those who can't tell, that's a Samsung SENS Q40 laptop
All right, so I have to admit, last playoffs I wasn't really nervous. Maybe because the Senators were the number 1 seed and they were facing Tampa, who was number 8. But their early playoff exit has made me a bit of a nervous wreck the eve before their series kicks off against Pittsburgh.
And I will admit it, I'm scared. I'm a little frightened. I don't know if I'll make it through tomorrow because I'm a nervous wreck. I didn't think a team where half the roster would be asking me to buy beer for them would make me feel so jittery. But you know what? I'm just being realistic here. If the Penguins do go deep in the playoffs, I doubt anybody would be surprised. Everything seemed to be in place for them given how the drama unfolded that was their season. However, I'm going to keep the hope alive. I'm going to keep faith because the Senators are my team and they're a different team than before. And they have to start somewhere and they at least have the experience to get them through it.
So, as any good blogger does, here is your series preview.
Up-Front...
| Ottawa Senators… | Pittsburgh Penguins… |
| Heatley - Spezza - Alfredsson | Christensen - Crosby - Armstrong |
| Schaefer - Fisher - Comrie | Ouelette - Malkin - Recchi |
| Vermette - Kelly - Neil | Malone - Staal - Laraque |
| Schubert - McAmmond - Eaves | Ruutu - Talbot - Ekman |
| Extras - McGrattan - Saprykin | Roberts - Thorburn - Petrovicky |
Advantage....Penguins
The lines for the Penguins aren't accurate but I couldn't [read: didn't look that hard because I was lazy] find an accurate line-up chart for the Pens. Up front, you have to give the advantage to anybody with Crosby on their roster. I know, I know, as much as I hate to admit it, it's true though. I'm pretty sure Crosby is the equivalent of our whole entire top line or the whole of our second to fourth lines COMBINED. Am I giving him too much credit? Maybe I am. He does only have 4 points against the Senators and all of them on the Powerplay. So it's important for the boys to play disciplined.
As far as depth goes, they could probably go head to head in terms of lines except Malkin and Staal will without a doubt provide more fire power than Fisher and Vermette/Kelly/Eaves. Staal and Kelly could probably go head to head scoring short-handed goals though.
McGrattan and Sapyrkin will most likely be healthy scratches, Murray has said. It's also expected that Laraque will be a scratch, and as Murray joked, maybe they'll get into it at the press box.
On the Blue-line...
| Ottawa Senators… | Pittsburgh Penguins… |
| Redden - Meszaros | Gonchar – Melichar |
| Phillips - Volchenkov | Whitney – Orpik |
| Corvo - Schubert | Eaton – Scuderi |
| Extra - Nycholat, Preissing | Nasreddine – Cairns |
| | Kwiatowski |
Advantage...Senators
Again, I apologize if the Pens' defense pairings aren't correct. I'm giving the advantage to the Senators based on the strength of the Phillips-Volchenkov pairing. With the help of a good checking line, they should be able to shut down Crosby or Malkin or at least effectively contain them. Redden and Meszaros are slumping but if they were perhaps paired with somebody else, they might be able to get out of their slump. Redden, I suspect is still battling an injury so hopefully these couple of days of will be enough for him to feel better. Not included in the chart is Preissing, who is also nursing an injury and no word yet if he'll be back in time. If he is back, he will most likely be paired up again with Corvo and Schubert moving back up front. However, I would like to see Schubert stay on the blue-line and perhaps be paired with one of Meszaros or Redden to add a more physical presence to that pairing.The Pens' defense isn't horrible, but it doesn't have the big presence that the Senators' do. I would be careful of Gonchar, Malone and Eaton though as they've proven to be able to be dangerous offensively and defensively.
Starting in Net...
| Ottawa Senators… | Pittsburgh Penguins… |
| Emery | Fleury |
| Gerber | Thibault |
Advantage...Senators
I'm not usually a numbers kind of person because I think for the most part they don't tell you the whole story but I'm going to give it to Emery based on his numbers and also playoff experience. Emery is currently 13th in the league in terms of GAA with 2.47 and 7th in SV% with .918. Fun fact: he's faced 1,691 shots in total.
Marc-Andre Fleury is 27th in GAA with 2.83 and 24th in SV% with 0.906. Fun fact: he's right above Martin Gerber who is 25th in SV%. He has, however played 67 games in the regular season while Emery has played a little less with 58. Fleury has faced 1,954 shots in total.
Emery not only has playoff experience and the battle scars to prove it, but he's fiercely competitive and has proven to be more stable on a consistent basis. Fleury does have the ability to steal games for the Pens, but has not been steadily consistent and the lack of experience might play a factor.
In terms of back-ups Gerber is 24th and 25th respectively in GAA and SV%. Thibault isn't in the top 30 in either categories. That being said however, he is a perfectly reliable back-up but might not be enough to steal a series should something happen to Fleury. Gerber, does at least have playoff experience, even if it was from the bench most of the time. He did steal a couple of games for Carolina last year in the playoffs when Cam Ward was having an off-day but didn't play for more than three games in a row. His health and his confidence will be the biggest factors that determine his playoff success. However, hopefully it won't come to that for either team.
The "X"-Factors...
- Experience - Advantage: Senators. The obvious choice would be the Senators, who have made the playoffs 10 seasons straight and the Pens haven't made it since the year 2000. However, the Penguins do have Recchi, Roberts and Laraque, two of which have won the cup and Laraque, who has made it to the finals. At least in passing.
- Grit - Advantage: Hard to say but probably a slight edge to the Penguins. The Senators do have good grinders in Neil, Schubert, Phillips and Volchenkov though and if they can provide a good physical presence, then they'll be able to contain the Penguins. They also have a good tough guy in McGrattan, but it's doubtful he'll see any action.
- Leadership - Advantage: It's easy to give this one to the Penguins based on the sole presence of Gary Roberts. HOWEVER, I have no doubt in the leadership qualities of Daniel Alfredsson if he's able to block out all the pressure from the media and just play like he's capable of. The Penguins have a lot of youth and perhaps only one or two veterans that can be the leader but the Senators have a room full of experienced players who will be able to step up and carry this team in Heatley, Phillips, Fisher and ohmygoodnessifhecanstopsucking Redden.
- Who Wants it More? - I have no doubt in my mind that the Penguins want it just as bad as anybody, but for some reason I can't bring myself to think that they need it. Come on boys, you'll have other chances. There are jobs on the line in the Nation's capital!
- That being said...with Ottawa being a Canadian team and perennial contender, there is undoubtedly pressure on them but I think if they put in a solid effort and is simply beat by a better team, a label of "underachieving" isn't warranted. Losing to Buffalo wasn't underachieving - they were simply beat by a better team and that's what happens. They have the chance to make something happen by being in the playoffs in the first place and have done a tremendous job in the regular season, something many of us like to discount but it still does matter.
- And Just Because I said so... Ottawa. Please?
Series D - #4 Ottawa vs. #5 Pittsburgh
Date Time (ET) Location Network
Wed., April 11 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa CBC, RDS, VERSUS
Sat., April 14 3:00 p.m. at Ottawa CBC, RDS, NBC
Sun., April 15 6:00 p.m. at Pittsburgh VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Tue., April 17 7:00 p.m. at Pittsburgh VERSUS, CBC, RDS
*Thu., April 19 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa CBC, RDS, VERSUS
*Sun., April 22 1:00 p.m. at Pittsburgh NBC, CBC, RDS
*Tue., April 24 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa VERSUS, CBC, RDS
* = If Necessary
Rest of schedule found here.
From the Other Side of the Fence...
In the interest of keeping things fair and balanced, here's some perspective from the
In Some News That Might Make Habs Fans Happy...
The Montreal Canadiens have locked up the hero of the World Junior Championships, Carey Price to a 3-year deal. Price has been assigned to the AHL Hamilton Bulldogs, who have 4 games left in the regular season.
Wait, he's in Hamilton? Does this mean I have to search him out for people [and by people I mean Jordi]?
Posting Notice...
All right, so hopefully this primer is sufficient enough for the next couple of days. I'm in the middle of the fray that is my horrible, awful, life-threatening exams so posting may be sparse. Depending on the state of my consciousness, I'll make post-game posts if I can. My exams end on the 24th and once that's done with you can expect a couple of liveblogs from me and a liveblog of the Stanley Cup Finals. Which is what inspired this blog's creation, so hourray! In the meantime, here's Spezza attempting to do the wave to get you pumped for the playoffs:
GO SENS GO!
Labels: megapost, pittsburgh penguins, playoffs, preview, silly admin business
Look out for who? what? You don't need to do anything extreme. Just nurture him with a strict regime of threatening notes and how much if he screws up I'll never forgive him.
On the other note, good luck with your girls. :)
Go Pens go! Go Pens go!
Sorry, had to. :) I hope it's a good series, I gotta admit, you guys have some good players! Nice preview, by the by, mind if I link it in mine?
Oh! And in case you were wondering, your lines are mostly right, although Lord Therrien likes to whip out the blender nightly. You can find them here.
I think right now Colby and Recchi are up with Sidney, but it really depends on the day. (sorry to spam!)
Jordi - All right. I'll be sure to leave him notes like "DON'T SUCK OR JORDI WILL COME AT YOU WITH A LEAD PIPE"
My girls? Do I want to know?
Elly - Go right ahead and link it. It took me about an hour and a half to get it all up. Man, it's lengthy.
Bryan Murray does like to mix and match our lines as well. I'll go back to amend the lines if I can stop being lazy, haha.
And don't worry, your spam is always welcome here as long as it's not about me claiming money from some Nigerian prince :)
GO SENS GO!
I'm going to disagree with some of you said, lovely. Here's my opinion. :)
Sens in 5.
Many players have stepped up this season to replace Chara, Havlat, Hossa. Volchenkov has done a complete 180 from last year and is our strongest defenseman, and no longer doing the mistakes he had against the Sabres in the playoffs. Phillips and Volchenkov have been able to keep Jagr, Ovechkin and Crosby at bay for the majority of time this season. Phillips is known to step it up come playoff time, and it would be a scary thing to see if Volchenkov can do so too. Volchenkov is also among the league leaders in hits, +/-, and leads the league in blocked shots. Phillips is also one of the top +/- guys in the league and in shot blocking. Preissing lead the league in +/- for 9/10 of the season. He probably would have finished as the top guy if he hadn't missed last night's game with a groin injury. Our defense is much better this year, in a defense-by-committee way of playing. We also have a defenseman that can play on the fourth line or with any of the d-pairings in case he has to fill in.
Our offense this year is killer. Dany Heatley is tied for first for the most game-winning-goals this season in the league. He also has the second-best goal total with 50 exactly. Alfredsson is a top-10 assist guy. Spezza (53.0) and Vermette (53.0) have better face off percentages than Crosby (49.8). Crosby leads the league in points, but Alfredsson, Heatley and Spezza are also in the top 20, ahead of Malkin. Schubert, Kelly, and Heatley are in the top 20 for +/-, with Alfredsson being second-best in the league. Heatley also has 321 shots on net vs. Crosby's 250.
The thing that worries me about the Senators will be the play of Andrej Meszaros and Wade Redden, who have both taken a step backwards this season. Redden has been playing injured for a while which he should have been rested for as soon as we clinched. I'm not worried about the Senators goaltending, Emery has been better this season than last and we have our "second goalie" in Volchenkov who at one time blocked more shots than 50% of the league's goalies at the beginning of the season. The sens are icing a statistically tougher team than last year, but anything can happen. It'll all be about if Crosby can stand up to the pressure of his "first playoff series!!11!!11oneoneleven". I think the Pens will steal either game one or game two from the Senators at home, but the Sens will win it.
-Lydia
as i came looking for some assurance that we were going to be running over some penguins and flooring all leafs fans ...
as such i am gonna be super confident to represent the whole house and say that the sens will win it in 4 and emery will have 2 shutouts. then murray will put gerber in for game 4, who will have the game run into overtime and phillips will score the game winning goal, so that muckler will give him the contract he wants.
the anticipating of a poor performance strategy has not worked out well for me in the regular season, so i am switching up the approach.
GO SENS GO!
People seem to think that no one else in the league got to 100 points this season.
Crosby 120
Heatley 105
Psshhh. I call it even. Plus Heatley scored about 25 more goals this year.
I'm calling you on the offence. The only thing that scares me is the goaltending: just as easily as Emery could get red-hot, he could get ice cold - then we're boned.
Just some general points: I didn't mean to make it seem like Crosby was going to single-handedly run over the Senators. After all, he only has four points against the Senators and all of them were on the power-play. And I'm not denying that Heatley will be dangerous offensively regardless, but despite weaker goaltending, their offense is enough to ensure them wins.
I too think Emery could get ice cold as easily as he could get hot, however I think that's only in danger of happening if he doesn't get the workload he needs and if his momentum gets interrupted. If he can play himself into a nice groove then I think we'll be fine.
I'd say for me the larger concern is the Senators' defense, which is what to me inflates the danger of the Penguins' offense. I think on paper the Senators d-corps can easily outmuscle and outwork the Pens' defense but after Phillips and Volchenkov, there are some concerns. I'd say if you were to put them head to head, the Pens' lines can get a higher volume of production than the Sens'.
G - Muckler beat you to it! Phillips has been signed for 4 years at $3.5 million each :D
Exams + playoffs - the ultimate stress and strain test. I always got that same knotted up feeling in my gut every year (maybe it was just too much caffeine).
I was lucky in a way that my last few years at Ottawa U (1997 - 2000) were the ones the Sens didn't tend to hang around long, or I may well have spent a couple more remedial semesters in academia than I planned on.
Sherry, I'm okay with you saying that Sid will single-handedly run over the Senators. It's okay to admit. :)
Jay - Last year, their first playoff game was against Tampa and I had an exam during the game. Let's just say I'm surprised I passed.
I think I'm going to get an ulcer by the end of all of this.
Elly - I did not say it, I will never say it because I'm never going to believe it!
Ahaha, confession is good for the soul! Or something.
I think I'm actually just in denial about the Pens being so kick-ass this year, it doesn't seem real. Fans, and even the team, seem to be just thrilled to be where they are...although I bet the minute the puck drops tomorrow they'll be all business and going for the gold. Or Cup, rather. You will not be alone in the ulcers! We should get together and drink milk, I hear it's good for ulcers.
Eeeee! I'm SO excited about this series, almost as excited as I am for our series. I think your offenses are pretty even - you both have a ton of firepower. I really think the series is largely going to come down to who plays better more consistently, Emery or Fleury. I'm also curious to see how your boys react if they struggle too much. Oh, it's gonna be a good one! I'm glad I'm not emotionally invested here :-)
Elly - There is no confessing because it's NOT TRUE!
I think you're the opposite of me. I think I've been pressure tested for so long that I think it's just safer for me to take the cautious and optimistic approach.
Milk good for ulcers eh? I might have to give it a shot.
Heather B. - I think we definitely can match the firepower, but when I was evaluating the teams up-front I meant all-around game, not just offensively, haha. Plus I needed to give the Pens something I guess, haha. And I think they are pretty much even but I think the Pens might have the slight edge.
You're lucky you're not emotionally invested. Your series should be pretty easy :P although in the few times that Buffalo have met the Isles in the playoffs they have never won a series. But this was a waaaaayyy long time ago.
lol.
Yeah, anything concerning the Pens lately that is good I take with a grain of salt, pretty much only believing it when I see it for my own eyes.
K.. I want it to be 730 now. I want to be out of this suit and in to my SENS gear. I was just out for a walk and was trashed talked by a PITT's fan. ARRRG!
GO SENS GO!!!!
Someone want to build a time machine? Ill fund it. Please? Pretty please?
mmmm coffee!
Pav, the game is at 7! We need all Sens fans parked in front of their TVs to work the karma angle.
Sherry, great analysis. I'm inclined to agree on your Advantages (including up front - sorry Pizza Line).
I'm feeling pretty good about this series, if only because the refs tend to call fewer PPs in the playoffs. *Big* advantage: Ottawa
If the Sens can minimize giving PP opportunities to the Pens, I think that they can own them on the 5-on-5.
Man, I'm feeling a bit queasy myself. Fortunately, my wife is going to be out tonight, so I can stress out without stressing *her* out. She's not a big hockey fan, so she honestly thinks there's something wrong with me when I get nervous and jumpy around playoff time.
7???!? really? 7?!?!?!? ADAM! I LOVE YOU MAN! you made everything 30 mins eariler. You should let me buy you a beer. or 10.. or 20.. hell.. 30
PaV - I'm trying best not to think about it since i have so much work to do before now and then but I'm definitely getting my red gear on in spirit. I'll be head to toe in red by the end of the day.
Adam - Thanks. I think the advantage up-front definitely goes to Pittsburgh but only slightly based on all-around game.
I definitely think if the boys can stay disciplined they can get a leg up in the series. But I'm a nervous wreck and I can't wait!
Save some beer for the rest of us ;D
Sherry - I will cheer for you!! hehe.. and dont stress about the exams k!? :)
Ill send you happy mental rev up the red vibes
PaV - Thanks! It's well appreciated. I have had two cups of coffee today so far and I've been trying to compensate by drinking two cups of water. Suffice it to say I have not been very productive as a result.
Sherry - bah! I am leaving now... good luck with the studying.
If you need a good laugh to blow off some steam, put some Russell Peters on - that always works for me
Go Sens, make Crosby's mouth dry (for once.)
:D